No, I don’t vote, and I am not a fan of Harry Reid. But if you live here you know Sharron Angle is going to lose the election. Yet, my phone rings a few times a night with pollsters searching for my latest opinion. If only Las Vegas casinos would take bets on this election, I would be a rich man!
I once profiled Brian Sandoval, the only Republican in Nevada who had a chance to beat Reid. He was an honorable and decent man, and if he were running for Senate, things would be very different. There would be a competitive election. But Sandoval is instead going to be Nevada’s next Governor. I have not kept in touch with him and there is nothing personal in this observation. I don’t even mean it as an endorsement. Nevada does not have, in my opinion, two tight elections for Senate and Governor. Harry Reid will retain his Senate seat and Brian Sandoval will be the next leader of Nevada.
I am comfortable enough with both outcomes; I wish both Reid and Sandoval the best trying to help the nation and Nevada recover. By the way, my predictive power in politics is untested, and so take these observations for what they are worth.
But after reading all weekend about Sharron Angle, I am stunned that anyone would think she could win a Senate seat in Nevada. She is totally unelectable here. But I guess Sharron Angle’s campaign is like Baccarat. Nevada is used to people coming here from out of town to make crazy long-shot bets with their money hoping to be the ones to defeat math. They are the ones who believe they will win despite the casino’s advantage of impossible to beat odds. Reality: there will never be a month where casinos do the math and release a gambling total resulting in a loss for the house. The house win varies, of course, but the percentage change always announced is misleading. The change measures only how much of their own money that is put into play tourists manage to hold on to. The percentage goes up and down with luck, but there is no month where in total math loses. And, the Sharron Angel campaign has the identical chance to a month in Vegas where the tourists on the Strip enjoy enough luck to beat the house by even a single penny. That is never going to happen. She can not be elected.
So, nutty people of the nation, please keep throwing your money down the Angle drain. Come to Vegas and spend lots of money to show your support for her hopeless cause. It will make no difference in the election; the only sacrifice: you will have less money to buy Sarah Palin t-shirts, stop gay people from legally uniting and, of course, making sure children in this state continue to get a lousy education.